Key Data About Coronavirus in India

We are confused by plethora of data about the progress of Coronavirus disease. In the face of this it is imperative to see how to measure the progress of Covid-19 disease. Let us see each of these numbers and how to interpret them to see if we are going downhill or is there some positive change in the control of this pandemic.

• Active Cases: This is the number used to see how many people today are still being treated in the country. Since a patient after being treated is not expected to be able to infect others so this is the most basic number to gauge the spread of disease. e.g. On May 19th 2020, the total cases was 102,231. Unfortunately deaths for India were 3,169. Recovered patients stood at 39,658. This means closed cases were 42,827. So total active cases were 59,404. So active cases were less than 60% of total count. Latest numbers can be checked at active cases. The net infections per day is the increase in active cases per day. The net infections per day have always stayed below 25000. In the below graph 3rd March 2020 has been taken as day 1. 

Active cases have come down drastically as of  Jan 17, 2021. There has been a fall in net active infections by 800,000 in past 120 days.

This is most important for planning the healthcare capacity. The new hospital beds needed per day can be determined using this number. As the pandemic comes under control more values will be below the graph, as more patients get cured.

Positive Test Rate: In the face of rapid progress of the disease this number becomes most  important to get rough idea about the possible people among 100 who can be positive in a random population.  e.g. Positive test rate of 5.0 means that out of 20 people tested 1 has tested positive. This number is of most serious concern now as it shows if we are detecting enough number of cases to contain the spread of the disease. This has come to below 6% by Jan 17, 2021.

Doubling Time: This is the most important number being talked about in media also. This tells in how many days the total cases double. This negatively impacts the health care capacity of the country. If doubling time is too low then our hospitals can become overloaded with patients. The below chart shows this number has increased over time to 11 days as of Dec 28, 2020. But the whole world has a doubling time of 69 days. So cases in India are doubling slower than the rest of the world. This number points directly to the much talked about concept called, flattening the curve. The consecutive lock downs have tried to increase this number, since March 2020.

Treatment time: This tells the number of days it takes to treat a Covid-19 patient. If it is too high then our healthcare capacity will be used for treating existing patients, rather than being available to treat new infections. This time for India is approximately 17 days.

This number assumes importance in light of doubling time. If treatment time is more than doubling  time then active cases will keep on increasing. But if it is less than doubling time then on a given day new infections will be less than closed cases. So net addition to active case will be negative. All the efforts of social distancing, locked down, inventing new treatment options will ultimately bear fruit if treatment time becomes much less than doubling time.

New Tests Per Day: More people need to be tested around each cluster (containment) area. This helps to see if enough people can be quarantined or treated who can be or have been infected. If second number i.e. positive test rate keeps on increasing then more tests need to be conducted each day. Testing has now been increased to approx. 10 lakhs per day. This is in line with global peers in terms of percentage and will help to control the disease.

Covid-19 Vaccination in India

• Various studies point out that actual infections are nearly 5-10 times of actual stated numbers. This leads one to guess actual infections to between 5-10 crores.  Another study points to actual infections being nearly 400 times  the number of Covid-19 deaths. This brings the number to 7 crores. So, it appears nearly 7 crore of Indian citizens have already been naturally immunized by January 2021.
• To prevent the spread of the disease nearly 25-50% of the population need to be immunized. That means about 35-70 crore Indians need to have immunity against the disease. So, the need for vaccine is for minimum 30 crore of population. That means nearly 300 million vaccine doses need to be acquired in the first and second phase of vaccination in Jan. 
• This requirement will decrease and not increase as the virus spreads. This contradiction needs to be understood due to auto-immunity to the disease as one gets in contact with the virus. So, by January actual doses that need to be procured will be only 230 million, as nearly 70 million more will likely develop antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 virus.
• Presently GOI has ordered less than 25 million doses. So more doses need to be ordered for India. As more phase 3 results become available then more knowledgeable decisions can be taken regarding COVIDSHIELD, COVAXIN and NOVOVAX vaccines.